The BJP rhetoric and future of Bangladesh-India relations

One of the issues upon which the BJP is cashing on its Hindu fundamentalist agenda by using Bangladesh is the one related to the alleged 20 million illegal Bangladeshis in India. In his most recent election speech, Narendra Modi has asked these alleged Bangladeshis to get ready with their pillows and beddings to be pushed back to Bangladesh as soon as he leads the BJP to power. In his speeches in Assam and other areas bordering Bangladesh, he has blamed Bangladesh and alleged infiltration from Bangladesh for many of their misfortunes. BJP leader Dr. Subhramanium Swamy has asked for 1/3 of Bangladesh as compensation for the alleged Bangladeshis in India.

The BJP leaders have also stated in their election campaigns that BJP Government would complete the small part of the barbed wire fencing on the India-Bangladesh border as a priority so as to stop any future alleged infiltration. So far, the BJP leaders have used Bangladesh for bashing and have uttered nothing that would suggest a BJP government led by Narendra Modi would be interested in building any meaningful relations with Bangladesh, except to force it into subservience. The way the anti-Bangladesh pitch is picking up traction among voters in the border areas and places where these alleged Bangladesh are reported to be residing in India, it may be difficult for Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister to treat these blatantly anti-Bangladesh speeches as merely rhetoric more so because these rhetoric have been written in the BJP election manifesto.

Therefore, there are reasons for Bangladesh to be alarmed with the anti-Bangladesh speeches of the BJP and Narendra Modi latest warning to alleged Bangladeshis. Unfortunately, the Awami League and the BNP who have the responsibility to articulate the concerns of Bangladesh have looked at the dark and ominous cloud emanating from the BJP camp through their respective prisms. The Awami League has not even acknowledged these dangers. In fact, the Bangladesh Foreign Minister has said that the AL led government is already in discussion with the BJP leadership and has been given assurance that New Delhi relations with Bangladesh would be the same as under the Congress led government. On a major talk show, an Adviser brushed aside these concerns stating that he has not followed what has come out in the Indian media regarding Bangladesh!

The BNP has also failed to articulate the dangers brewing up for Bangladesh from the BJP camp. The BNP is hoping that a Narendra Modi led BJP Government would bring about a major change for its own political objectives by declining to give the AL led government the type of support the Congress gave in complete disregard to the traditions of Indian democracy and policy of conducting foreign relations, particularly with its neighbours, on principles of good-neighborliness. BNP is hoping the BJP Government would come back to conducting relations with Bangladesh with the country and not with just a particular political party. Therefore, the BNP has been cautious and has so far not taken any stand on the BJP rhetoric in order not to push it to support the AL led government the way the Congress led government did.

Therefore, Bangladesh is an unbelievable position because of the strange dynamics of its domestic politics with both the AL led government and the BNP wanting to be friendly to a party as blatantly anti-Bangladesh as the BJP. Nevertheless, at a time when history has come into the public domain in Bangladesh with no holds barred, the developments in India are raising questions in the public mind about India role in Bangladesh liberation war in 1971.People are starting to think and think seriously whether in 1971 India really wanted to help the people of Bangladesh to create an independent and sovereign state that would be guided by the principles of democracy, nationalism and secularism or to break and weaken Pakistan so that on its eastern border it would have a country that it would be able to control in every way it wanted.

The ball is in the AL court to articulate Bangladesh concerns were the BJP to form the government. It is already carrying the pro-India baggage even after it was let down very badly by the Congress government. It was the BJP and the Trinamool that is likely to become a force in New Delhi after the elections that had together forced the Congress led government to betray Bangladesh with both the Teesta and the LBA deals to appease their supporters. Therefore, the new BJP government would not in all likelihood offer these deals to Bangladesh upon assuming power. Hence the AL led government would commit political suicide if it were to be friendly with New Delhi under a BJP government without taking a tough stand on the issue of alleged Bangladeshis and at the same time demand the Teesta and LBA deals. Its dependence on New Delhi to remain in power however does make it likely that it would not want to upset the new government in New Delhi.

Bangladesh is therefore moving to a historical cross road with relations with India led by the BJP government. The two mainstream parties that should be uniting or fighting separately to get from India the LBA and Teesta deals and its other interests are instead seen appeasing the BJP even when it is raising the new and absurd push back /1/3 Bangladesh issues. The AL and the BNP could be pushing Bangladesh towards a nationalist movement with India as the enemy. Already, civil society groups/academia who are digging into 1905 Partition of Bengal and 1947 Partition of India are coming out with facts that show how Bangladesh was a victim in losing large territories that should legitimately have been its but now parts of India. In fact, such historical facts if articulated effectively by Bangladesh as a nation would not just show how ridiculous and absurd was Dr. Swamy claim but put the BJP on the defensive on the claim of 1/3 of Bangladeshi territory.

One hopes that the BJP anti-Bangladesh statements would turn out to be just rhetoric and that the BJP government would understand that Bangladesh-India conflict would not be in India interests. In India, Narendra Modi has lately come under pressure on many issues and some related to his character. Perhaps there is hope that sense would prevail upon the BJP to discard the controversial and rabidly anti-Muslim, anti-Bangladesh Narendra Modi. Mamata Banarjee whose Trinamool could be very important for BJP to form government has only recently called Narendra Modi the Butcher of Gujarat! For Bangladesh however national unity is the only way to deal with new threats under the BJP that seem likely. Therefore, the immediate future of Bangladesh relations with a BJP led government in India should not raise optimism in any quarter.