TDF- Round Table on Bangladesh-India relations

There was consensus among the participants that geo-politics places Bangladesh and India in a situation where they have little option but to try and evolve a relationship that would be win-win for both the sides as there are immense possibilities for both the countries in such a relationship. In such a relationship, India would be able to resolve one of its major concerns on its eastern borders, namely in the critical area of security. India would also be able to get access from its mainland to the fragile seven provinces collectively known as the Seven Sisters, an Indian need that was once called the land transit, later during the AL term of 2009-2014 as connectivity.

In a friendly win-win situation, Bangladesh would be able to integrate its economy with those of the Seven Sisters and also gain trade access to the vast Indian market. More importantly, with friendly, win-win relations with India, the more important issue for Bangladesh, namely that of sharing the waters of the 54 major rivers that flow to Bangladesh from India and critically vital for its existence as a country, could be resolved in a long term, sustainable manner by bringing in Nepal, Bhutan and China eventually. The concept of the multinational Mekong River Commission was placed as an example for multilateral development of the international rivers of the region.

A few participants believed that the way for the win-win cooperation should be the economic way. There were other participants who argued that it is politics that stood before the two countries for meaningful win-win cooperation. On politics, the participants identified that historically India has failed to show the political will to resolve some of the outstanding problems, like water and border demarcation and in this context, the fact that India has failed to ratify the Indira-Mujib Agreement signed in 1974 till present was placed before the RT by some participants as a major failure on India part. Some participants found fault with India political will in the way it dealt with the AL led government that gave it security assurances and land transit on trial basis at great political risk without any reciprocity by India. Some participants discussed the way the Congress led Indian conducted relations with the AL led government from 2009-2014 critically. They felt the Congress Government dealt not with Bangladesh but with the Awami League. They were also critical of the role of the Congress in the controversial elections of January 5, 2014 in Bangladesh.

Views were expressed that the new Indian Government led by Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party has not yet warmed up to the AL led government the way the Congress had (to it). Some participants felt that the Modi Government may not have liked the way the AL led Government moved into the Chinese sphere of influence. They felt that New Delhi may not be particularly comfortable by the AL led government interests to give China a greater presence in a strategic area where India is still deeply concerned through such projects and concepts as the Sonadia deep-sea project, the BCIM-EC. In particular, some participants felt that New Delhi may not be very happy at the way Bangladesh is buying arms from China where compared to Pakistan 58% dependence on China for arms, Bangladesh is 84% dependent on China for its arms. The purchase of 2 Chinese submarines and India concerns over it were also stated at the RT.

The interests of the United States and Japan in the region also were discussed. A few participants felt that India, the United States and some members may be coming together on common strategic interests in the region where the common adversary is China. They felt that the AL led government, in its desperation for legitimacy, may have moved too close to the Chinese sphere to get from New Delhi the sort of support that it had received from the Congress led government that it now very badly needs and seeks.

It was also mentioned in the RT that despite the total security support given by Bangladesh to India, the incidence of acts of terror inside Bangladesh has increased. It was also mentioned that the only way to contain terror on a sustainable basis is to seek out the democratic resolution to the problems in Bangladesh that have developed following the controversial elections of January 5, 2014. It was felt by some members that the BJP Government is keeping a close eye on politics in Bangladesh where it would support the democratic option as was underlined by the Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj in her speech made at the BIISS when she visited Bangladesh in June this year. Therefore some members felt that the BJP Government would revert to conducting relations with Bangladesh and not with a particular political party in Bangladesh but that it would show no hurry to do so till Bangladesh itself is ready to deal with India as a country.

A detailed paper on the deliberations of the Round Table is being finalized and will be placed in the TDF website shortly.