Indian elections and future of Bangladesh-India relations

The Congress and the Awami League have close relations for many reasons the most important of which has been the relationship they had developed during the country war of liberation in 1971. In fact, it is now widely accepted in Bangladesh that Congress Government in New Delhi feels comfortable dealing with Bangladesh only when there is AL led government in Dhaka. The Awami League while in power has always more than reciprocated the Congress closeness towards it. Since 2009, while the Congress has failed to keep its promises to Bangladesh for its domestic compulsions notably in case of the Teesta and the LBA deals, the AL led government did not put any pressure on New Delhi and instead gave India a carte blanche on its critically important security needs. Thus historically, New Delhi-Dhaka relations have been special under a Congress government leading India.

Bangladesh-India relations under a BJP government in New Delhi would therefore be without the special element. Such relations would be complicated further by the way the BJP has been posturing in campaigning for votes. The BJP has used Bangladesh as a card in its blatantly Hindu fundamentalist agenda. Narendra Modi in particular has openly spoken against Bangladesh while campaigning in Indian provinces bordering Bangladesh, blaming Bangladesh for many of the problems these provinces are facing. The presumptive Prime Minister has brought out the explosive issue of alleged Bangladeshis in India that the Congress led government did not bring up for discussion in any official forum since the AL came to power in 2009. The BJP has also craftily used the card of alleged Bangladeshis to appeal to the Indian Muslims that did not support the Bangladesh war of liberation in 1971 because it weakened Pakistan.

Narendra Modi, in one of his most recent speeches, has said that these alleged Bangladeshis, 20 million in all, would be pushed back to Bangladesh from the very first day of his administration! Dr. Subhramanium Swamy, another BJP leader, claimed 1/3rd of Bangladesh, as compensation because he thought it would not be possible to push all the Bangladeshis back. In between the rabidly anti-Bangladesh rhetoric, the BJP leaders have shown no interest in building good relations with Bangladesh. Dr. Manmohon Singh had advised Sheikh Hasina to negotiate with the BJP for the Teesta and LBA deals. The advice would make little sense in the context of the new BJP innuendos against Bangladesh seen together with the stand it had taken to stop the Congress government efforts to deliver the Teesta and LBA deals to Bangladesh.

Bangladesh environmental future depends on India because 54 of its 56 rivers flow from there. The recent drama over the Teesta has flagged for the people of Bangladesh how lack of water in just one of these rivers is turning millions into beggars while the catchment area of the river is showing growing signs of turning into a desert. Negotiations with India on waters of these common rivers are crucial to Bangladesh existence. The Congress government had taken from Bangladesh security concessions and land transit of trial basis with the promise of turning Bangladesh into a sub-regional economic connectivity hub to get land transit of a permanent basis. That did not happen because India failed to deliver the Teesta deal and Bangladesh withdrew the land transit deal. Nevertheless, Bangladesh continued to cooperate with New Delhi on the much more important security issue while the promise of becoming the sub-regional connectivity hub remained a promise, like the other Indian promises.

The Congress has now dangled before the Bangladesh an upgraded connectivity card to keep it interested in making land transit permanent and continue to give India virtual blank cheque on its security needs even when it knew that the BJP would in all likelihood form the next Indian government, for the sake of India national interests. New Delhi promised to make Bangladesh the hub of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) that would assure India crucial need of land transit the fragile Seven Sisters. The Ministry of Commerce in Bangladesh has already stated it is taking steps to make the roads ready for traffic that would flow through the country once it became the region connectivity hub. The upgraded connectivity card would also give Bangladesh a deep seaport in the Bay of Bengal that would make it immensely rich. However, the rhetoric coming out of the BJP does not encourage the people in Bangladesh that the crucial needs for fair share of the waters of the common rivers and the promise made by the Congress Government that the country would become the regional economic connectivity hub would be fulfilled under the BJP Government.

Yet, the AL government leaders have stated they are in contact with the BJP and have been assured that it would not change India policy towards Bangladesh if it came to power. In fairness, such statements were made before the latest anti-Bangladesh rhetoric from the BJP camp, particularly from Narendra Modi. Meanwhile, the BNP also has put politics ahead of the nation and has not spoken against the BJP rhetoric in the way the nation expected but for different reasons. It is expecting that a BJP government would not treat the AL led government as special like the Congress that would give it political advantage in Bangladesh politics. There has been meanwhile a paradigm shift in Bangladesh among the people vis-a-vis India. The reasons for it are quite a few.

The latest Long March on the Teesta issue together with the incident involving the alleged RAW agents at Dhaka Airport and of course India failure to deliver deals to Bangladesh are the main reasons. Thus the ambivalence and the politics behind the failure of the AL and the BNP to BJP rhetoric notwithstanding, the BJP Government would have to take into account India declining acceptance in Bangladesh for protecting India national interests. Therefore, the BJP would have to retract its rhetoric and deal with Bangladesh differently knowing there has been a paradigm shift in people perception in Bangladesh towards India. The BJP, if it were to form the government, would therefore do its country and Bangladesh-India relations a world of good if it were to retract from its rhetoric and develop relations with Bangladesh and not with just one political party.