Summary of the keynote presentation:

The Roundtable was the third in the series of discussions organized by The Dhaka Forum on the national election. The last one held at the CIRDAP auditorium on the 14th of October was convened with particular focus on the next election.

In addition, the paper also alluded to the 1 million Rohingyas in Bangladesh as the victim of ethnic cleansing and genocide by the Myanmar military. It concluded that if these refugees are not sent back to their country through negotiations with the Myanmar government something that does not look likely, international terrorists such as ISIS driven out of Iraq could be encouraged to fiddle in the volatile situation in Bangladesh with the dangers of turning Bangladesh into their new destination. If the next national election was not held freely and fairly and political unrest ensued instead, the chances of Bangladesh sliding towards becoming a hotbed of international terrorism would increase greatly. 

The paper welcomed the Prime Minister's assurance that the next national election would be free and fair. It also took note of the efforts of the Election Commission in holding discussions with the stakeholders on the basis of a 7-point framework among which two are the creation of a level playing field and accepting the recommendations of the stakeholders. Notwithstanding the Prime Minister's assurance and the EC's initiatives, the paper noted whether the next election would be free and fair would depend primarily on the will of the ruling party and further noted that it has thus far not made any effort to create the democratic environment that would be necessary to hold the next election in a free and fair manner, still refusing to allow the main opposition party the BNP any democratic space at all. 

The paper also highlighted the main issues upon which a fair and free election would depend apart from the intent of the ruling party. These issues were organized in the paper under (1) Consensus over the election time government. (2) Dissolution of the existing parliament. (3) A firm commitment from the Election Commission and the stakeholders to avoid without fail a repeat of the 2014 election. (4) De-politicizing the civil bureaucracy, the law enforcing agencies and the intelligence agencies. (5)   Ensuring the freedom of the media and removing draconian laws such as Section 57 of the ICT Act. (6) international / domestic observers in adequate numbers during the election.

The paper's main emphasis for a free and fair election was on achieving a non-party or a multiparty election time government, underlining that there was little chance that such an election could be achieved under the existing government (ruling party). The paper highlighted that the ruling party had stated categorically while pressuring the BNP Government in 1996 for the neutral non-party caretaker government that elections just cannot be fair under ruling party election time government. The distrust between the ruling party and the opposition that had forced the Awami League for seeking the caretaker government during the election in 1996 has deteriorated manifold. Therefore, the paper strongly advocated against an election under the ruling party.

The paper's main emphasis for a free and fair election was on achieving a non-party or a multiparty election time government, underlining that there was little chance that such an election could be achieved under the existing government (ruling party). The paper highlighted that the ruling party had stated categorically while pressuring the BNP Government in 1996 for the neutral non-party caretaker government that elections just cannot be fair under ruling party election time government. The distrust between the ruling party and the opposition that had forced the Awami League for seeking the caretaker government during the election in 1996 has deteriorated manifold. Therefore, the paper strongly advocated against an election under the ruling party.

The paper towards the end stated that Bangladesh is at a crossroad and another non-participatory election could make the country more vulnerable to domestic chaos and international terrorism. The paper felt that all is not bleak and there are some reasons for optimism. It stated that many of the factors that had come together to make it possible to hold a non-participatory election in 2014 do not exist as the country moves towards the next general election. Of these factors, one is that the opposition BNP has stated that would participate and the other one is that India with the BJP in power instead of the Congress does not seem inclined to interfere in the next election as it had done in 2014.

Keynote Paper

Introduction:

Today's Roundtable has been organized to follow up on three Roundtables that The Dhaka Forum had held since the non-participatory national election of January 5, 2014. TDF had held the first of these three Roundtables with The Daily Star in February 2014 immediately after the non-participatory election was held. In that Roundtable, we had highlighted what had made that national election questionable. In fact, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina herself acknowledged the questionable nature of the January 2014 election when she had said that her government had to hold that national election for upholding the Constitutions and that a new general election would be held soon afterward. That, of course, did not happen.  Subsequently, the TDF had held a Round Table on December 17, 2016, and another on April 26, 2017, both independently, on the next general election. In the last two Roundtables, the TDF had underlined the importance of the next general election to regain the spirit of 1971 that was compromised by the questionable January 5, 2014, national election. 

Spirit of 1971 embedded in people's right to vote in a free and fair manner:

The spirit of 1971 was primarily about people's right our right to vote freely and fairly to express their right to self- determination. On 7th December 1970, the people of Bangladesh had used a national election and their power to vote to unequivocally to express their right to self-determination enshrined in the UN Charter of Human Right to express unequivocally their determination against Pakistan's neo-colonial rule. In history, no nation has been able to express their right to self-determination through the democratic process as the people of Bangladesh had done through the December 1970 elections. They had voted 167 of 169 Awami League candidates not just to become the majority party in the East Pakistan but also to form the government in Islamabad to end the neo-colonial rule against them and to establish their social, political and economic rights.

What happened thereafter needs no elaboration except to underline the fact that Pakistan did not accept the electoral verdict and started the Bangladesh Genocide that only enhanced the resolve of the people of Bangladesh to put the fear of death behind and fight for their right to be ruled by the government of their choice. Therefore, although the people of Bangladesh glorify their liberation war and for the right reasons as the most glorious in modern history, it was their coming together on December 7, 1970 that was the source of their liberation, a source that arose from their determination and faith in the electoral process as the way for a people to express their fundamental rights, political, economic and social.

January 5, 2014, national election compromised the spirit of 1971:

Thus what happened on January 5, 2014, was shocking and the antithesis of December 7, 1970. Therefore, if December 7, 1970, elections gave birth to the spirit of 1971, January 5, 2014, elections compromised it. An election where less than 10% people voted, where 153 of 300 candidates became members of the parliament without a vote cannot conform with the national election of a country that established itself with the sacrifices of hundreds of thousands for democracy. In fact, the last national election became irrelevant when 151 candidates did not need a single vote to become members of the 10th parliament of Bangladesh.

Public apprehensions about next general election:

These facts make the next national coming election as important to the people of Bangladesh if not more than the December 1970 elections. According to the Constitution, the next national election must be held on a date between October 30 next year and January 27, 2019. Therefore, the next national election is knocking at the door. But there are still apprehensions in the minds of many people whether the people would truly regain their fundamental right to vote and elect the next parliament freely and fairly from where the party of their choice would form the next government of Bangladesh. And in the process, free the spirit of 1971 that has been bottled up and the nation left suffocating since January 5, 2014.

Prime Minister assures free and fair national election:

The apprehensions in the minds of the people arise from reasons that are genuine notwithstanding the fact that the Prime Minister in her most recent interview given to the Voice of America in Washington during her recent trip to the United States has said that the next general election would be held freely and fairly. This Roundtable has been organized to deal with the apprehensions in the public mind and come out with recommendations to help release the bottled spirit of 1971 through free and fair elections. The Prime Minister's encouraging assurance notwithstanding, the task ahead for the current Election Commission for holding a free and fair election to select the next parliament of Bangladesh, the 11th in the country's history, does not appear an easy one.

Democratic environment: 

A democratic election can be held only when the environment is democratic. It does not need to be stated that the democratic environment for such an election does not exist in the country at the moment. The predicament of one of the largest of the political parties in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the BNP, underlines this unequivocally. They are not allowed to hold even a single rally and their leaders and activists are in fear of the police, the security, and the intelligence personnel to come out into the open. In contrast, the ruling party has been in the election mode since the middle of last year. Ministers and ruling party leaders are under the instruction of the party to be in their constituencies as frequently as possible. Thus right under the nose of the Election Commission, the element of unfairness has already been established on the most important of its 7-point framework, namely a level playing field has already been compromised and the EC has little power or inclination to set it right. It is a pity that the party that had benefitted from December 7, 1970, national election (and the nation of course) to lead the movement for independent Bangladesh is now in power through the questionable election. It should be its duty in the context of its historic role in the Bangladesh movement to help create the democratic environment for the next general election.

Democratic environment: 

A democratic election can be held only when the environment is democratic. It does not need to be stated that the democratic environment for such an election does not exist in the country at the moment. The predicament of one of the largest of the political parties in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the BNP, underlines this unequivocally. They are not allowed to hold even a single rally and their leaders and activists are in fear of the police, the security, and the intelligence personnel to come out into the open. In contrast, the ruling party has been in the election mode since the middle of last year. Ministers and ruling party leaders are under the instruction of the party to be in their constituencies as frequently as possible. Thus right under the nose of the Election Commission, the element of unfairness has already been established on the most important of its 7-point framework, namely a level playing field has already been compromised and the EC has little power or inclination to set it right. It is a pity that the party that had benefitted from December 7, 1970, national election (and the nation of course) to lead the movement for independent Bangladesh is now in power through the questionable election. It should be its duty in the context of its historic role in the Bangladesh movement to help create the democratic environment for the next general election.

The Election Commission's roadmap: 

The Election Commission meanwhile has come up with a roadmap for holding the next general election in a free and fair manner. It has announced a 7-point framework in July and currently holding discussions with the stakeholders. In fact, the EC is already in discussion with these stakeholders. The discussions are expected to conclude at the end of October. The 7 points in the framework are as follows: I) Legal reforms to strengthen the electoral process. II) Delimit constituencies and finalize heir territorial expanse. III) Update voters list. IV) Establish polling stations according to regulations. V) Create a level playing field. VI) Fresh registration of all political parties. VII) Accept recommendations from discussions with stakeholders.

EC's seven-point framework: Discussion with stakeholders for level playing field: 

The seven-point framework for discussion with the stakeholders includes important issues; most importantly creating the level playing field that is indispensable for holding a free and fair election and accepting the recommendations of the stakeholders for holding the next elections. The EC must, therefore, be congratulated for its decision to hold discussions with the announced framework with the stakeholders including the major political parties to bring out recommendations from these discussions. There is no doubt that such recommendations would be very useful for holding the next elections freely and fairly.  The Jatiya Party that has already held discussions with the EC has recommended that the 10th Parliament should be dissolved ahead of the national election and that the army should be deployed during the election for holding a free and fair national election.

Ruling party most important stakeholder for EC's discussions: 

In the discussions with the stakeholders, the EC must review why the last national election embarrassed the country that was born out of an election in which the people were able to vote freely and fairly. The December 1970 election was free and fair because the Pakistan's military Government's intention was to give the people such an election. Therefore, more important than the other stakeholders, it is with the government that the EC must hold its most important discussions to get its commitment for a free and fair election.  If it were to find out that the government wanted to give the country a free and fair election, then it would be encouraged to hold discussions with the stakeholders. In fact, if the EC were able to encourage the ruling party towards holding a free and fair election by putting the country ahead of its party interests, then holding such an election would be almost as easy as done. And in achieving that objective, it would be very useful for the EC and the ruling party to review together the last election sincerely and objectively.

Ruling party most important stakeholder for EC's discussions: 

In the discussions with the stakeholders, the EC must review why the last national election embarrassed the country that was born out of an election in which the people were able to vote freely and fairly. The December 1970 election was free and fair because the Pakistan's military Government's intention was to give the people such an election. Therefore, more important than the other stakeholders, it is with the government that the EC must hold its most important discussions to get its commitment for a free and fair election.  If it were to find out that the government wanted to give the country a free and fair election, then it would be encouraged to hold discussions with the stakeholders. In fact, if the EC were able to encourage the ruling party towards holding a free and fair election by putting the country ahead of its party interests, then holding such an election would be almost as easy as done. And in achieving that objective, it would be very useful for the EC and the ruling party to review together the last election sincerely and objectively.

Opposition parties willing to participate on a level playing ground: 

The opposition political parties that had boycotted the 2014 elections have already expressed that they would participate in the next elections. They are negotiating with the Election Commission for creating the conditions they would like to see for their participation which is a level playing ground. And most important of all, the people whose right to vote has been taken away, are restless for regaining their right to vote and ready to participate in the next elections. Therefore, all the factors necessary for holding a free and fair national election that had given birth to the nation are coming together that the ruling party also seems to be accepting. Cases of forced disappearances seem to be on the decline. The fear imposed upon the opposition parties, their leaders and activists with arrests, court cases are still there as is the unwillingness of the ruling party to give democratic space to the opposition. Notwithstanding these, the conditions that had helped the ruling party to hold the 2014 national election in a non-participatory way is now not there.

Election time government: 

The key to a free and fair election would depend more on the nature of the election time government than the Election Commission's powers, credibility or ability. The Awami League more than the other political parties know the dangers and the imperils of holding elections under the party/government in power. During the BNP's 1991-96 term, it had carried out violent movements supported by Jatiya Party and Jamat for the neutral Caretaker Government in place of the government of the ruling party that the BNP gave and lost the July 1996 elections. The January 2014 elections further strengthened AL/ Jatiya Party and Jamar's argument of 1991-96 that elections under incumbent party government simply cannot be free or fair. An agreement among the stakeholders on the election time government, therefore, will be the most crucial factor upon which holding a free and fair election would depend. 

Non-Party or multi-party election time government indispensable for free and fair election: 

As the Awami League has totally destroyed its own baby, the neutral caretaker government, it must now find some alternative election time government because events since 2014 leave no doubt about the intentions of the incumbent government.  The BNP and the parties that had boycotted the 2014 elections appear unlikely to participate in a national election under the incumbent government and for very good reasons. As an alternative, there could be an election time national government with representatives from the political parties based on their perceived strength in the country. A non-political national election time government could also be constituted with eminent personalities from the civil society. 

Dissolution of the 10th Parliament:

In view of the nature of the election to the 10th Parliament, it must be dissolved before the next election. Otherwise, the election would be heavily biased in favour of the ruling Party. It need not be reiterated what type of influence the members of the 10th Parliament would exercise vis-à-vis the candidates of the other parties that would not be able to nominate members of the current parliament as their candidates. Already, in their ongoing discussions with the Election Commission, some of the political parties have raised this issue together with the deployment of the armed forces during the period of the next general election.

De-politicization of civil bureaucracy, law enforcing agencies and intelligence: 

Bangladesh's experience shows that the civil bureaucracy, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies play key roles during elections. There is today a general perception that these institutions and their personnel have the power to change the outcome of the elections. These institutions have been over-politicized since the ruling party came to power in January 2009. Therefore, prior to the elections, there must be changes at the field level of officials of these institutions. Better still, if the ruling party were to participate in a shared multi-party election time national government, key ministries that have control of these institutions such as Home, Establishment, Law, Local Government, and etcetera, should be shared by the major political parties. The Awami League, in fact, had proposed such a proposal leading to the last general election.

Freedom of the media: 

A free media is indispensable for free and fair election from the local to the national and sustainable functioning of a democratic political system. Since 2014 the country has witnessed the steady erosion of the freedom of expression and gagging of the press. The Bangladesh media is no longer free. According to Freedom House, which measures press media freedom in the countries of the world or the lack of it, press/media freedom in Bangladesh is almost non-existent. Draconian laws particularly Section 57 of the Information and Technology Act promulgated by this government makes investigative reports or journalism critical of the government and ruling party very difficult and underlines that the press/media in Bangladesh is in fact shackled. The laws in particular that restrict press/media freedom must be withdrawn as one of the primary preconditions of a free and fair national election.

International observers:  

Once the EC would be able to negotiate with the ruling party, the opposition and the other stakeholders to satisfy itself and the country that the conditions for a free and fair national election have been established, it must carefully bring the international observers during the elections. A great deal of distrust has been created in the country with regards to the national election in which all the stakeholders, including unfortunately the civil society of the country, have contributed. Therefore, international election observers will be crucial to satisfying the stakeholders about the credibility of the next national election. The EC would do itself if it could bring to the country during the next general election, a statesman of the credibility of the former US President Jimmy Carter.

Conclusion: 

Bangladesh is at a crossroad. Another non-participatory election like the 2014 national election would be disastrous for the country. The forces and factors that had allowed the Awami League to hold the non-participatory 2014 national election (and there were many) are not aligned in the same manner to hold another non-participatory national election in Bangladesh. It is the BJP that is in power in New Delhi today in place of the Congress that has historical relations with the Awami League. It is therefore unlikely that New Delhi under the BJP Government would repeat sending its Foreign Secretary to directly interfere in the next election like Sujata Singh as the Foreign Secretary of the Congress-led Government had done to help the Awami League in the 2014 national election. The international community also has made it clear that they do not want a repeat of the 2014 non-participatory national election. 

Therefore, the next national election would be held in all likelihood with the participation of all the political parties. And if the election is not held in a free and fair manner, violence would naturally erupt. This is where the civil society of the country has a major role to play as the go-between between the ruling party and the opposition for the creation of the level playing field where all the political parties would be able to feel confident about participating. 

The Rohingya problem has brought to our doorsteps new dangers that call for uniting the nation.  Strategist researcher Jasminder Singh of the prestigious S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies has stated: "There is a danger that the situation in Rakhine will make the territory a hotbed of international terrorist activity, both for the IS and Al Qaeda." A questionable election in Bangladesh leading to serious domestic strife in the face of indispensable national unity would be the magnet to bring to fruition the dangers to which Jasminder Singh and many other strategists are alluding.

Therefore, it is of the utmost national importance, in many ways as important as the factors that had brought the nation together in 1971, that we all come together again and ensure that the national election for the 11th Parliament of Bangladesh would be held in a free and fair manner with the participation of all political parties and with the voting rights of the people kept in abeyance since January 2014 restored once again. The TDF has organized this Roundtable to contribute its part to this national cause.