Date: 26th April 2014
The Dhaka Forum (TDF) and the Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) Brainstorming Session- Following are the salient features of discussions in the interactive session on Bangladesh-India relations held between the Dhaka Forum (TDF) and a 3-member team from the Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) a leading think tank based in Mumbai, India on 12 November 2013 at the TDF office.
The SFG delegation from India was led by its President Mr. Sundeep Wasleker whilst the TDF team was represented by seven of its eight founding members and led by the current President Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed. Besides, there were three other distinguished participants.
Ambassador Shamim Ahmed, founder member of the TDF, set the proceedings rolling by provided the background to the event. The SFG panel leader gave a presentation highlighting the aims and purposes of the SFG in general and their purported intent behind the present visit in particular.
Mr. Wasleker, at the outset of his presentation, stated that primarily the focus of the SFG–established in 2002 was on international issues. It devotes 85% of its resources on global affairs whilst Indian issues constitute only 15% of its activities. The organization maintains close relations at high political level “with the parliaments and the governments of the countries it deals with. Their recent report titled Water Cooperation for a Secure World based on in depth examination of the dynamics between water and security in 205 shared water basins of 148 countries across the continents was able to draw worldwide attention.
He continued that in the Middle East, the SFG is trying to resolve the water crisis among five countries through their proposal called Blue Peace and towards that end would participate in a seminar/workshop to be held in Amman, Jordan in about a fortnight. The Blue Peace concept would also be used as an instrument of conflict resolution among the states of the Nile Basin he added. He also said that in order to determine the requirement of water for sustenance, a concept of Water Quotient has been developed by the SFG.
Mr. Waslekar acknowledged that Bangladesh had played its part to improve relations with India but unfortunately the latter failed to deliver on its promises. He informed that according to article 73 of the Indian Constitution, the matter of inter-state relations was the subject only of the Union/Central government and as such the Teesta Accord could have been signed through cabinet approval only. There was no need for ratification by the Parliament. However, to facilitate matters, it would be advisable if Mamta Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal was on board with the initiatives of Bangladesh. He saw a definite role for SFG and TDF to bring the accord to fruition.
The President of the SFG proposed that efforts may be undertaken to sign an Agreement as it is on 40: 40: 20 basis 40% for India; 40% for Bangladesh and 20% for resurgence of the eco-river system. The problem is during the lean season, from November to March when the available flow per month comes down to less than 1 BCM per month.
To address the problem of acute water crunch which is now associated with the scourge of arsenic contamination, a joint investment plan needs to be formulated to improve the quality of water. Mr. Waslekar observed, funding and technical assistance may be obtained from multilateral donor agencies, if approached by the concerned national governments.
Innovative ideas such as drought resistant crops may be introduced and popularized through pilot projects. But such actions call for substantial investment. The government has a role cut out for it in this regard.
Mr. Waslekar expressed disappointment over the present structure and operational methodology of the JRC terming it as a misnomer as in reality, two parallel national committees are operating independent of each other on issues of common concern without effective coordination and hence without any salutary results.
Dr.Salehuddin, The TDF President, observed that like the integrated water management concept, there should also be a holistic approach in Indo-Bangladesh relations as no progress in any field/sector would be possible in a state of political vacuum.
Taking the floor in the question and answer session, Mr. Touhidul Anwar Khan, an eminent expert on water resources and a former member of the Bangladesh-India Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), stated that Bangladesh faced the perennial dilemma of super-abundance of water during the monsoon and acute shortage during the dry season. Six BCMs of water that Bangladesh receives during the monsoons was simply a runoff. Given the nature of the flat alluvial terrain this quantum of water cannot be stored within the geographical confines of Bangladesh. Hence, he opined, the figure was a misnomer. The construction of a barrage at Gazaldoba on the Indian side has exacerbated the situation by further constricting the flow, ha said and suggested that creative steps for enhancement in concert with Nepal should be undertaken.
Ambassador Humayun Kabir who in the course of his foreign service career served in the Bangladesh Deputy High Commission in Calcutta during two different periods observed that it would be extremely difficult to prevail over Mamta Banerjee given the intricate nature of the internal politics of India. He viewed the perceptible shift of India well known policy of bilateralism towards multilateralism as a good sign.
Ambassador Mahmud Hasan who also served in New Delhi remarked that despite all its apparent bonhomie Congress led governments historically failed to deliver on their promises. Only during the regimes of non-Congress liberal leaders like IK Gujral, HD Deve Gowda and even Morarji Desai was Bangladesh able to make some headway in India- Bangladesh relations.
Ahmed Mahmudur Raza, Founder Member of TDF and a former Secretary to the Government, viewed that the trust deficit was hindering the progress in Indo- Bangladesh relations. Referring to the Land Boundary Agreement (LBA), he pointed out whilst Bangladesh handed over the Berubari enclave in 1973, India continued to renege on the reciprocal transfer of the Tin Bigha corridor to Bangladesh on various pretexts even after a lapse of more than forty years. Mr. Waslekar clarified that Article 73 of the Indian Constitution made exceptions to cases where citizen movement are affected. Tin Bigha was thus in a legal tangle. Ambassador Masood Aziz suggested that the legal maze can be circumvented by leasing the Tin Bigha Corridor in perpetuity to Bangladesh. If lease in perpetuity was not feasible, a beginning could be made leasing it out for 100 (one hundred) years initially he added.
Air Commodore (Retd.) Ishfaq Ilahee Choudhury, ndc, of ther BRAC University chronicled a series of unfulfilled promises by India such as the commissioning of the Farraka Dam on a trial basis and that trial never ended. He added that India was building a dam in Tipaimukh and a barrage at Fulertal which would affect flow of water in Meghna, the Surma, the Barak and the Kushiara Basins in Bangladesh threatening the eco and bio diversity of the region.
Ambassador Shamim Ahmed, founder member of the TDF, mentioned that security had to be seen in totality in terms of insurgency, economic progress and availability of water. He regretted that Indian Foreign Policy planners were obsessed with their relations with Pakistan and it was high time that they shifted their focus eastwards.
Ambassador Iftikharul Karim underscored that India must conduct its relations with Bangladesh on the basis of sovereign equality and refrain from imposing its will. He alluded that diversion of the water of the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) river might have motivated the SFG to bring Bangladesh on board as co riparian’s vis-a-vis China.
Naser Bukhtear, Founder Member of TDF underlined that India should remove all NTBs; PTBs and ease QRs to enable Bangladesh gain market access in order to address the situation of gross trade imbalance.
Ambassador Shahed Akhter pointed out that the recent speech at the Retreat Ceremony by the Union Home Minister Mr. Sushil Kumar Schindhe at the Jessore-Benapole border caused further misgivings about Indian designs and intentions in Bangladesh. He termed the barbed wire fence as unfriendly since it hindered the free movement of the people.
Ambassador Masood Aziz suggested that the basic principles like justice, equity and no harm contained in the various rulings of the Indian Supreme Court regarding the Cauvery Water Dispute between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu and the Krishna River Dispute between Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh could form the basis for sharing the Trans Boundary Common(TBC) rivers like the Teesta. He also mentioned that from the satellite imagery it transpires that India has constructed a number of barrages and through a series of link canals diverting the water of the Brahmaputra Basin to as far as Madhya Pradesh and beyond to the arid deserts of Rajsthan. Mr. Wasleker replied -such a notion was more perceived than real.
The SFG President recalled how the collaborative efforts of the Indian think-tank Centre for Policy Research (CPR) and its Bangladeshi think-tank the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) helped in facilitating the signing of the Ganges Water Treaty in 1996. He expressed his desire to forge a similar sort of partnership with TDF to address the issues associated with the TBC Rivers including the Teesta.
In his concluding remarks the TDF President Dr.Salehuddin Ahmed reiterated the need for simultaneous forward movement in all sectors of India-Bangladesh bilateral relations as that would be mutually reinforcing. He asserted that the conclusion of a deal on the Teesta would be possible only if there was genuine goodwill. Bangladesh was now afflicted with the triple scourges of saline water intrusion, desertification and arsenic contamination which may trigger internal displacement of a large mass of its population. Though emotive the sincerity of Bangladesh is beyond doubt. He also expressed the hope that India would assign greater priority in resolving all the outstanding issues with Bangladesh and assured the SFG President to work in tandem to realize the common goals.
At the interactive session the TDF team was joined by Ambassador Humayun, Kabir, Vice President, Bangladesh Enterprise Institute, Ambassador Mahmud Hasan, Senior Adviser, Centre for Foreign Affairs Studies, Engineer Tauhd Anwar Khan, former member of the Bangladesh-India Joiunt Rivers Commission (JRC) and Wing Commander (Rtd) Ashfaq lahi Chowdhury of the BRAC University, Mr,Sandeep Waslekar was assisted by his SFG colleagues, Ms. Ilmas Futehully and Mr. Sanjay Menjoge.