Bangladesh-India relations

In its 2009-14 term, there came about a dramatic change in the AL in the way of conducting relations with India. The India factor was totally gone and those who negotiated on behalf of the AL led government with India openly advocated it was in Bangladesh interests to tune both its foreign and domestic policies with those of New Delhi. They made great promises that with paradigm shift in bilateral relations by doing away with the India factor, Bangladesh would become the regional connectivity hub and thereby reap immense economic/financial benefits. The AL Government thus offered total security cooperation to India and allowed it land transit on a trial basis without even being asked. The two thus made politics the fundamental basis for conducting Bangladesh-India bilateral relations.

With a BJP Government in power in New Delhi at present, the issue before not just the AL but the whole of Bangladesh and the BNP is whether the BJP Government would also follow the Congress and make politics the basis for conducting bilateral relations because meanwhile many things have changed. This paper examines those changes to find out the directions in which Bangladesh-India relations would proceed under the BJP Government in New Delhi. The AL led government has made no secret that it would like the BJP Government to deal with it in the same manner as the Congress Government.

Respective interests of Bangladesh and India in their bilateral relations:

Bangladesh bilateral relations with India from Bangladesh point of view are just not the normal issues of foreign relations between two neighbors such as trade/economic/diplomacy, border etc. It is all of the above. But of the essence is the fact that Bangladesh very existence as a country is dependent on steady flow of waters of the 54 of the 56 rivers of the country that flow from India. In that context, India literally holds the ability to either allow the country to survive or slowly fade away as an environmental failure. Therefore, for Bangladesh there is no alternative but to have friendly relations with India.

From India point of view; relations with Bangladesh are also matters of trade and economics, diplomacy and the rest of it. Nevertheless, India made major sacrifices for Bangladesh independence so that it could be free of security worries on its eastern front. Bangladesh, till the AL came to power in January 2009, did not give India that freedom from security worries. Bangladesh is located between mainland India and its fragile 7 sisters. Use of land transit would help integrate the fragile states to mainland India as well as help it develop. Neither has happened and for both, India needs Bangladesh rather badly.

In fact, land transit on a permanent basis has been the second major expectation of India from Bangladesh for which it had helped liberate Bangladesh. In fact, in the 1973 Bangladesh-India Trade Agreement, Bangladesh had agreed to give India land, water and sea transit. Under the Agreement, all that was needed to activate the three transits was exchange of letters. The water transit was no problem and through exchange of letters soon after the Trade Agreement was singed, water transit was activated and has been renewed every 3 years ever since. The land transit got stuck in politics and became a major hurdle in Bangladesh-India relations ever since following the change of government in Bangladesh on August 15, 1975.Nevertheless, from India point of view, it also needs to have friendly relations with Bangladesh.

Bangladesh-India relations, 1971-75 and 1975-2008:

Nevertheless, Bangladesh India relations have not evolved in a matter that would make mutual interests of the two countries the fundamental basis for the conduct of their bilateral relations. The first period of 1971-75 was different. Till the change of government in August 1975, India-Bangladesh relations followed from India role in Bangladesh independence although there were early signs that relations subsequently may not evolve as smoothly as the two countries had expected during the war of liberation. Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman initiative to send the Indian soldiers home and subsequently his decision to turn down the offer of New Delhi to depute its civil servants to Bangladesh were the signs that subsequent development of relations would be problematic.

In between 1975-2008, the regimes in Bangladesh except that of the AL in 1996-2001, felt India was being an overbearing neighbour, unfair to Bangladesh on water, trade and border related issues. The only bright spot in all these years were the signing of the Ganges Water Sharing Accord in 1996 and the Chittagong Hill Accords in 1997 in which New Delhi made a major input by forcing the Shanti Bahini that had sanctuary in the border provinces to give up arms and sign the peace accord. Even the AL led government of 1996-2001 did not make any positive move towards India to give India the land transit.

Instead in 2001, Bangladesh and India were involved in a major border conflict when the BDR, killed 16 BSF soldiers in the border. During the 2 BNP Governments (1991-96 and 2001-2006), India was unhappy with what they alleged as sanctuaries given to Indian extremists such as the ULFA inside Bangladesh. Trade, border and water issues did not make any substantive progress towards resolution and Bangladesh continued to remain unhappy with the way India conducted relations with Bangladesh. Death of Bangladeshis in the border at the hands of the BSF, 1000 by the time the AL came to power in 2009, became a new and major issue of discontent from Bangladesh side. Another major issue related to demarcation of he maritime border was taken off the table and Bangladesh decided to go to the international courts for resolution.

Paradigm but one-way shift in Bangladesh-India relations with AL victory in December, 2008 elections:

Since the AL came to office in January 2009, India was again involved in Bangladesh as it was in 1971 but only so far as the AL led government was concerned. The AL led government fulfilled the dreams of India for which India had involved itself to fight a war with Pakistan to liberate Bangladesh. One of the first actions of the AL led government was assuring India on one of those dreams, namely free India for any security concerns on its eastern frontier. The AL government security secretly handed to the Indian security 7 top ULFA insurgents who were hiding in Bangladesh to the Indian security that helped the Indian Government to break the back of the many decades old insurgency in Assam. The AL led government also made unilateral offer to India on its other major dream, namely land transit and allowed it that transit on a trial basis as a consequence of which Tripura was able to build its mega-power project, namely the 700 MW Palatana gas fired power project.

Congress led government fails on major Bangladesh expectations: Positive movement in trade and economic relations:

The AL led government asked nothing in return. It did not get anything either. There were promises of making Bangladesh the regional connectivity hub; an agreement on the sharing of Teesta water on a 50/50 basis; and concluding the land boundary agreement (LBA) that India had kept pending since 1974 when the Indira-Mujib Border Agreement was signed out of which India had accepted from Bangladesh its part of the deal but failed to deliver to Bangladesh its part. The Indians tried to make up for their major failures with the offer of a US$ 1 billion in soft loan of which it later made US$ 200 million into grant because it was unable to deliver of the major promises. There were forward movement however on trade where New Delhi finally relented on the negative list for Bangladeshi imports to which it was bound by the SAPTA agreement signed in 1992 as a result of which Bangladesh had lowered its tariffs against Indian imports but India had failed to.

Little Pressure on New Delhi from Dhaka:

Thus the net result of Bangladesh-India relations between the Congress and the AL governments between 2009-2014 has been largely one sided. In fact, as India failed to deliver the Teesta and LBA deals, even the Indian media and some of its former diplomats who were once posted in Bangladesh blamed New Delhi strongly for letting the AL Government down. Nevertheless, the Awami League led government did not put the expected pressure upon New Delhi for the failures. The Bangladesh team that had forcefully advocated the case of strong Bangladesh-India relations and were angry upon those who had advised caution not to paly its security and land transit cards unilaterally and were reprimanded were not to be seen when India extended indefinitely its promises on LBA and Teesta deals. In the end, in his last meeting with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in Myanmar on the sidelines of BIMSTEC in February this year, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohon Singh had asked her to negotiate the two deals with the new government to assume power after the Indian general elections in April/May!

AL led government grateful to Congress for support for January 5 elections:

By that time however, the AL led government was too deeply indebted to the Congress led government to express any disappointment or anger. The role of the Congress led government in the January 5 elections is fresh in everybody mind. It was on India support leading to the January 5 elections and subsequently that the AL Led government has tried and succeeded in legitimizing its return to power for a second successive term. The role of the Indian Foreign Secretary Sujata Singh in Dhaka in December will go down in Indian diplomatic history as its darkest chapter. She met the Jatiya Party leader HM Ershad and asked his party to participate in the January 5 elections to give it credibility and stop the BNP from coming to power. It was simply unconceivable that India would interfere in a neighbour internal politics that way. What was even more astounding was that Sujata Singh took HM Ershad into confidence.

BNP unhappy with Congress for building relations with the Awami League and not Bangladesh:

The BNP was convinced that had the Congress led government not stood by the AL led Government in that unbelievable way and had like 1971 supported the people of Bangladesh instead of a particular political party, the AL would have been forced to negotiate with it and hold inclusive elections and Bangladesh would not have to fall into its current predicament that is the anti-thesis of both democracy as well as the spirit of 1971. Thus from the Indian point of view, the Awami League Government was heaven sent for it. For Bangladesh, the Congress was hardly an answer to its prayers for an Indian Government that would deal with it fairly on the major issues of water, border and trade. On water, the Indians promised to share the Teesta that the people of Bangladesh thought would be the start of a comprehensive agreement with India on the other rivers.

BJP dramatic victory and anti-Bangladesh election rhetoric:

Thus when elections were held in India in April-May, the AL was hoping for a Congress victory and the BNP for a defeat of the Congress. The reason was a simple one. Between 2009-2014 January elections, it has been the Congress led government that has directly managed politics in Bangladesh. The overtly pro-AL role of the Indian President in favour of the AL was not a secret to anyone. Same was the case with SS Menon, the National Security Adviser and the architect of the Bangladesh Plan for the Indian government. There was more in public knowledge about the role of India outside the AL circles; that Indian intelligence was working directly in Bangladesh both for Indian interests as well as to ensure that the AL is not politically threatened at all in remaining in power. Therefore, the stakeholders in Bangladesh were looking at Indian elections from different perspectives but nevertheless with intense interest because like never before in its history, India had become since the AL assumed power in January 2009, a major factor in the domestic politics of Bangladesh.

Therefore, neither the AL nor the BNP, the two main stakeholders were much concerned that in the elections campaign, the BJP was openly talking on issues intensely anti-Bangladeshi because both knew that the Congress was on way out and the BJP was on way in. For instance, Narendra Modi repeated said before the elections that from day one of his government, 20 million alleged Bangladeshis in India would be pushed back to Bangladesh. Nevertheless, neither stated anything in public against such blatantly anti-Bangladesh posture of the BJP.

BJP victory and Bangladesh-India relations:

BNP was obviously extremely happy that the Congress had lost decisively because it had acted directly against its interests. The AL, no doubt unhappy that the Congress had lost, reacted by ridiculing the BNP for distributing sweets in the hope that the BJP would support new elections in Bangladesh. The AL ridicule of the BNP no doubt highlighted a reality; that the AL was at a loss because of the defeat of the Congress that had conducted relations with Bangladesh with its interests in prime focus. In fact, during the Congress Government, many in Bangladesh rightly concluded that it had conducted bilateral relations not with Bangladesh but with the Awami League.The visit of the Indian Foreign Secretary to Bangladesh before the January 5 elections and her meeting with HM Ershad to encourage him to participate in those elections was extremely unusual.

Nevertheless what is significant is that both the Awami League and the BNP went into denial about the election rhetoric of the BNP and went out of the way to welcome the Narendra Modi like he was the best thing that had happened to Bangladesh. Such behavior no doubt underlined the fact that the way Bangladesh-India relations were conducted between the Congress Government of India and the AL led government between 2009 till the Congress was voted out, a paradigm shift had indeed occurred in the way of conducting these relations; namely a recognition by both the mainstream parties that the new Indian Prime Minister and the BJP Government would play an important role in determining the direction of politics in Bangladesh would go.

The people of Bangladesh have watched with concern India failure to deliver on its promises on the one side and the AL led government failure to pursue these promises with India with the nation interest in view. The people have also watched the high handed approach of the Congress in favour of the Awami League and the failure of the BNP to expose these blatant interferences by New Delhi in Bangladesh internal politics. Thus while on the one hand, while the people have been upset and angered by the Indian Government led by the Congress for the way it had conducted bilateral relations with India as a result of which its acceptance among them in now perhaps at an all time low; nevertheless they too now realize that the BJP Government led by Narendra Modi will play a major role in the way politics in Bangladesh evolves in the immediate future.

Bangladesh-India relations under BJJP: The expectations:

The BJP Government thus finds itself in a position looking at Bangladesh that it is under no pressure from its neighbour to do really anything and yet be immensely important in the affairs of the country. The AL led government is in no hurry to push New Delhi for the pending Teesta and LBA deals. It is also in no hurry to push the New Government on the other major issues, namely water, deaths at the border or the huge trade deficit between the two countries. Even highly charged issue such as Indians in Bangladesh remitting US$ 4.96 billion to India has been allowed to pass as also the fact that Indians have targeted the RMG industry in Bangladesh as a competitor. The BNP has also not articulated any of the undelivered promises by India or India undue interference in the politics of Bangladesh. In fact, the India factor, once a major card in domestic politics between the AL and the BNP has faded into the background.

It is what role the BJP government would play in the politics of Bangladesh that seems to be the concern of the two mainstream parties. The AL wants the BJP Government to favour the AL Government the same way as the Congress had done, be its die hard supporter as the AL General Secretary has stated publicly (in fact he indeed had said Narendra Modi is a die-hard Sheikh Hasina supporter). The BNP wants the BJP Government to treat all parties in the country on equal footing and conduct relations with Bangladesh and unlike the Congress, not with the AL.

BJP yet distancing itself from Bangladesh unlike the Congress:

With no pressure from the either the ruling party or the BNP to fulfill its promises and with both the parties more than willing to please New Delhi on its major concern in Bangladesh namely security , the BJP Government is taking its time to expose what role in would play in Bangladesh. In that, it has not yet done anything that would make the AL led government feel that it would stand behind it the same way the Congress had done. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to visit Bangladesh while meanwhile he visited Bhutan and Nepal. His first meeting with Sheikh Hasina was a very short one on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York in October where he did not stat anything to cause excitement in the Awami League. His second meeting with Sheikh Hasina was also innocuous one on the sidelines of the SAARC Summit in Kathmandu.

The major substantive contact between the two governments took place when the new Indian Government sent its Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj to Dhaka. On that visit, however, she met the BNP leader Begum Khaleda Zia whose party isno longer in parliament. Had the new Government been a diehard supporter of the AL led government, it could have easily avoided any contact with the BNP. In fact, at the address she gave at the BIISS, Sushma Swaraj underlined the importance of democracy for a developing country and the general tone of her speech was more towards the points that the BNP has been articulating in the country politics since the January 5 elections.

In the last six months it has been in power, the BJP Government has also made no serious efforts to resolve the Teesta and the LBA deals keeping in mind that on at least the LBA deal, it was responsible for stopping the Congress Government for ratifying the agreement as the Congress alone did not have the number required to ratify. Now the BJP alone can ratify the deal. On Teesta also, the BJP can easily resolve it because it is under no political threat from the Trinamool that had held up the deal during the Congress Government that did not have the power to annoy the Trinamool because of its fragile hold on the central government. Very recently, after almost assuring that it would ratify the LBA deal during the current winter session of the parliament, the BJP is now saying that the ratification would be delayed for the next session.

Reasons for the BJP Government slow move towards the AL led government in Bangladesh

The above developments suggest that the BJP Government is in no hurry to please the AL led government. There are a few reasons for this. These are as follows:

1. The new Indian Government is not comfortable with the overtures of the Awami League Government towards China. In the last term while Congress was in power, Sheikh Hasina made it clear in no uncertain terms that India was Bangladesh favoured country in the region and undertook a visit to India (upgraded to a state visit in breach of protocol) much ahead of a visit to China. In fact, when she visited Beijing, she kept New Delhi up to date on all aspects of that visit so as not to cause any alarm in New Delhi.

2. This time she has already visited Beijing upon returning to power for a second term on January 5, 2014 while a visit to New Delhi is not yet on the cards. In Beijing, the Bangladesh Prime Minister expressed Bangladesh enthusiasm to China leadership of Asia in the world stage; discussed giving to China the proposed US$ 22 billion worth Sonadia deep-sea project; strengthened defense cooperation and purchased two submarines from China.

3. Bangladesh also enthusiastically discussed with the Chinese leaders the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Cooperation (BCIM-EC), a project with which the Congress Government had tried to keep the AL Government interested after the concept of connectivity hub failed to take off. The BJP Government has been cool to the BCIM-EC as it is not comfortable with China in it because it would give China strategic access into the fragile Seven Sisters.

4. Over and above these issues from international/regional politics factoring into the attitude of the BJP Government towards the AL led government, the January 5 elections is also figuring at the back of the minds of the Indian policy makers. It is aware that the elections have not only weakened the hold of the AL led government, particularly on the issue of legitimacy, the Congress support for the elections has also led to India standing in Bangladesh to fall to an all time low. Therefore, it is aware that giving such a government unqualified support may not in the end keep it in power and in the process, India would also be unacceptable to any non-AL government in power in Bangladesh. Further, it would also raise question marks on India claim as a champion of democracy.

Therefore, the BJP Government is in no hurry to meet the expectations of the AL, the BNP or the people of Bangladesh. It is in the unenviable position where without the hurry, its interests in Bangladesh, namely with the security concerns are more than assured. The Congress Government has taken India to that comfort zone. In the last 6 years, the Indian insurgents in Bangladesh have been neutralized. Sheikh Hasina government has also largely neutralized the Islamic fundamentalists who could be a threat to India. Also, there are now security mechanisms in place between the two countries through which New Delhi has better handle over its security concerns in Bangladesh.

India other concerns, namely with the land transit depend on its own ability to deliver to Bangladesh the Teesta deal that is still held up by the Trinamool and Mamata Banarjee. New Delhi is aware that with delivery of the Teesta deal, it would be able to move Bangladesh to exchange the letters that would give it land transit on a permanent basis. Meanwhile, New Delhi is comfortable with the fact that the Bangladesh Government is more than willing to let it use land transit whenever necessary on emergency basis as the Hasina Government had allowed it after BNP came to power for carrying food grains.

In looking into its relations with Bangladesh, the BJP Government would therefore be influenced by two factors. First, it would need to see clearly where the AL Government is headed with its relations with China and how India-USA relations (and Japan) converge in the context of the sub-region vis-a-vis China. In this context, BCIM-EC, in which China has a major role with which the AL led government had expected with the Congress government support to become the regional connectivity hub is now becoming a cold concept. In the days ahead, India may look at the Japan Bay of Bengal initiative where China has no standing as the alternative.

For moving ahead in the above mentioned directions, New Delhi would no doubt also keep an eye on the political situation in Bangladesh. It would like first to keep China out of contention from gaining a strong foothold in the region. Second and most importantly, New Delhi has the lingering fear to which Condoleezza Rice, then US Secretary of State had pointed in 2005 that Bangladesh could very well become the next Afghanistan for which it would like democracy to strengthen in the country, a message that the Indian Foreign Minister had given in her BIISS speech on her visit to Bangladesh in June this year.

There the BNP and the opposition force have a ray of hope. The bottom line is that the BJP Government will not back the Awami League the way the Congress had done. In fact, it has no reasons for that because it is aware that one thing the five years of negotiations between the Congress and AL Governments have done is that it has at the political level brought changes in the BNP vis-a-vis India where New Delhi need to co relations with Bangladesh through the Awami League may not be considered a good option. However, the BJP government will also do nothing to encourage elections in Bangladesh but if political events go that way, it will certainly not again interfere the way it did leading to the January 5 elections.

Conclusion:

The BJP Government is in no hurry and under no pressure to move on its relations of Bangladesh. It has given the AL government no green signals that it can expect from it the same support as it had received from the Congress. If anything, it is examining seriously the implications of Bangladesh overtures towards China; the interests of USA in particular and Japan to a lesser extent in the region vis-a-vis China while also focusing which way internal politics in Bangladesh goes. The BNP has no reason for being comfortable with this because while waiting for developments to occur, the BJP has no reasons to force democratic changes in Bangladesh. BNP nevertheless has one reason to take heart; when such democratic changes occur, as they are likely to, the BJP Government will not intervene against it and take side with the AL as the Congress had blatantly done. Meanwhile, the issues of water, trade and border that are of primary concern of the people of Bangladesh will have to wait because (1) the ruling party and the BNP will not push for these issues; and (2) BJP Government will be in no hurry to move on the issues.