Ruling party determined to hold elections under the 15th Amendment and repeat 2014 national elections:

The ruling party is determined to hold the next elections under the 15th Amendment. In other words, it is determined to hold it under its own party leader as the election time Prime Minister; its own carefully chosen and politicized civil servants and police administration in charge of critical election time duties; and a CEC and an Election Commission which it has chosen that is at its beck and call to ensure that should the opposition decide to contest the elections, it would lose it even before entering it. The ruling party’s law enforcing agencies with a compliant judiciary have ensured that if the BNP tried to challenge the ruling party in the streets, the fear and the reality that it has faced in the last 5 years, of false court cases, incarceration and enforced disappearance, would be applied more forcefully. Several AL leaders and ministers have in the recent days publicly stated as much.

Likely unity in opposition ranks and change in the attitude of foreign powers  particularly India towards elections in Bangladesh:

Two developments nevertheless have raised hopes among the majority of the people who are desperate for regaining their right to vote and with it, bringing the country from sliding towards one-party dictatorship back to democracy. The first development is the recent changes in the domestic political environment. The second development is in the changes in the international environment, particularly in the attitude of India.

The United National Front (UNF):

In domestic politics, the forces outside the mainstream opposition BNP, led by Dr. Kamal Hossain, and other senior political and civil society leaders have successfully formed an alliance that they have named the United National Front (UNF) to ensure that the next national elections would be held in a free, fair, inclusive and participatory manner. The BNP and its allies have joined the UNF giving it the potential of capturing the imagination of the majority of the people who have watched the democratic space shrink before their very eyes since 2009, in particular since 2014, where the laws and the institutions of the country have been used to keep the ruling party in power in the name of development. And the demands that have emerged from the UNF are those with which the citizens of Bangladesh cannot disagree no matter which side of the political divide they may be because the UNF’s demands are for democracy; for freedom of speech and expression; for free and fair national elections; for the Spirit of 1971. All of it would, of course, depend upon the ability of the leaders of the UNF themselves remaining united - that is still a matter of concern.

Change among foreign powers’ attitude towards forthcoming elections in contrast to their stand in 2014:

If the formation of the United National Front has given the majority of the people a hope that democracy would return to the country, an apparent change in the attitude of the foreign powers have strengthened that hope. Today, the foreign powers that matter in Bangladesh’s domestic politics have stated unequivocally that they support the demand of the people for a free, fair, inclusive and participatory national election. They now no longer believe AL’s argument that they had believed in 2014, that a vote for BNP/Jamat is a vote for Islamic terrorism. In fact, they now believe to the contrary, with a million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh and the polarization of the opposition forces, a peaceful national election is absolutely necessary to save Bangladesh from falling into the hands of the extremists and terrorists.

India supports a free, fair and participatory national election in Bangladesh for its own interests:

India’s apparent change of stand on the forthcoming national election in Bangladesh vis-à-vis its role in the 2014 elections, that has only recently come to light, is a positive development for the Bangladeshis to regain their right to vote through a free, fair, participatory and inclusive national election. Last November, the Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj on an official visit to Bangladesh had stated categorically that India would like to see a free, fair, inclusive and participatory general election in Bangladesh. She had also said it was the responsibility of the government to ensure that all parties, including the BNP, participate.

The perception is growing in New Delhi that it would no longer be in India’s interests to help the Awami League repeat another election like the one in 2014.  A former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh alluded to this fact in a recent article. He stated that “there is, however, a growing feeling in policy circles in India that Hasina’s authoritarian impulses and taking India’s support for granted would not be in India’s interest.” This former diplomat has been a well known ruling party supporter with close contacts to the Indian policymakers. Further, the conditions in Bangladesh that had helped India to interfere in 2014 elections have changed. There is no Shahabag Movement, the war crimes trials are over, and the BNP is not making the big mistakes that it had made in 2013-2014. There is a realization in New Delhi that India can further its national interests in Bangladesh by being seen with the people of Bangladesh rather than its ruling party only.

Necessary conditions for holding a free, fair, inclusive and participatory National Election:

The country is dangerously polarized and at a historic crossroad as already stated. A repetition of 2014 would allow the ruling party to turn the country into a one-party dictatorship and dishonour the memories of the martyrs of 1971. Therefore, it is the duty of every citizen to stand behind the United National Front and stand up for their rights just as they had done leading to the 1970 national elections of Pakistan answering to the call of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The task would not be easy but the doors are opening. The UNF must also be up to the historic task that it has taken upon its shoulders.

The Dhaka Forum (TDF) in its last RT on February 22, 2018 had stated categorically that the time had come to rise over the politics of conflict of the AL and the BNP and unite under one banner and for one issue, namely restoration of the right of the people to vote freely and fairly in an inclusive and participatory national election. The UNF may be the answer to that call. TDF is hopeful that this united political platform would endure long enough to usher in an era of democratic governance in Bangladesh through free, fair and credible elections at regular periodic intervals. The path forward has to include discussion and dialogue with the AL government in order to pave the way for the restoration of a democratically elected parliament because the key to a peaceful transition of power to a government elected freely and fairly by the people is in the hands of the ruling party.

1. The elections are knocking at the door. Yet, the ruling party is showing no interest to sit with the opposition forces to resolve the two main issues that are now clearly standing in the way to holding the elections peacefully, namely, the nature of the election time government and the dissolution of the 10th Parliament. It does not need a crystal ball to predict that with the opposition forces polarized on the two issues, and the factors that had helped the ruling party hold the controversial 2014 elections no longer existing, violence and dangerous consequences are inevitable unless there is talk between the ruling party and the opposition forces and agreement is reached on the two issues.

2. The UNF’s offer to the ruling party for discussions on holding free and fair elections is one that the ruling party should be encouraged to accept by putting the country ahead of the party. The civil society should play the strongest possible role in this context for it is a historic opportunity that has come before it. In the backdrop of the politics of conflict that exists between the ruling party and the BNP, the civil society should rise above both and do all it can for holding a peaceful, transparent and credible national election.

3. The two major obstacles for holding a free and fair national election have both emerged from the 15th Amendment that the ruling party adopted in 2011.  The ruling party insists that it would be unconstitutional to deal with either to avoid accepting the demands of opposition forces. The demands are also apparently backed by the overwhelming majority of the people outside the AL and its allies.

4. The ruling party’s objections on constitutional grounds lose its merits based its own past actions. The Constitution did not stop it in 1996 to force the BNP through violent opposition and mayhem on the streets to change the 1972 Constitution that was adopted while Bangabandhu was in power to accept the caretaker government system in place of national elections under the party in power. The AL had argued at that time that national elections under the incumbent prime minister and the party in power cannot be free or fair the BNP was forced to adopt through the 13th Amendment.

5. In 2011 while in power, the AL did a 360 turn on its 1996 argument about election time government without bothering about the Constitution, treating it as a tool for furthering its interests. It abrogated the 13th and the Caretaker Government that was its brainchild and through the 15th Amendment reverted to the 1972 Constitution.  In addition, the 15th Amendment gave the Prime Minister more powers than what Begum Khaleda Zia had in 1996 when the AL had demanded the caretaker government.

6. The 15th Amendment ending the caretaker system/abrogating the 13th Amendment was adopted in haste. It ignored the recommendation of the Chief Justice Khairul Huq who had recommended that 2 more elections should be held under the CTG, the 2014 national elections and the forthcoming national elections, before it was finally annulled.

7. The ruling party has argued in favour of economic development ahead of democracy to justify the current absence of democracy in the country such as the right of the voters to vote freely and fairly. Such economic development can neither be sustainable nor equity-based and only materialism and consumerism have flourished in those countries that have used this argument rather than values and individual freedom. Therefore, the argument favouring economic development ahead of democracy cannot be acceptable for Bangladesh. The argument of economic development before democracy was the core theme of Ayub Khan’s autocratic and despotic rule. Time has proved how hollow those arguments were.

8. The 15th Amendment empowered the ruling party to use the Election Commission at will, and politicize the government’s critically important civil bureaucracy and police/law enforcing agencies to further its interests. That was palpably evident during the 2014 elections. The 2014 elections thus compromised the government’s legitimacy, the noble objectives for which the country became independent in 1971, and took away from over 90% of the people, their right to vote by requiring no elections in 153 of the 300 seats in the parliament.

9. Keeping the 10th parliament and holding the elections for the 11th parliament can be defended only by force and ulterior motives. It allows the ruling party advantages that no parliamentary system anywhere allows candidates for a parliamentary election. And in the highly politicized and partisan politics of Bangladesh and the publicly demonstrated attitude of the current members of parliament from the ruling party, the predicament of candidates of the opposition for the next elections would be one where their chances of winning would be marginalized.

10. The behaviour of the Chief Election Commissioner, the Election Commission, the civil and police administrations during the 2014 elections empowered by the 15th Amendment, made it palpably obvious that in Bangladesh free and fair national elections cannot be held under the ruling party and with the incumbent prime minister in charge of the election time government. And keeping the 10th parliament intact would take away virtually all hopes of opposition candidates of winning. In fact, most of them would perhaps even lose their security deposits unless the two major problems standing in the way of a free and fair election in Bangladesh are resolved.

11. The existing animosity between the ruling party and the BNP does not augur well for the nation’s hope that the two vital issues would be resolved to allow the next elections to be held in a free and fair manner. The formation of the United National Front with the BNP as a part of it, however, has given a ray of hope for the nation. It is still too early to pin too much hope but it must be underlined that the need to hold the next election in a free, fair, participatory and inclusive manner is crucial for the future of Bangladesh.

12. TDF strongly supports the formation of the United National Front. The TDF not only believes that the United National Front can bring into its platform all the opposition political parties but also a large part of the civil society to play together a historic role in the country’s politics and encourage the ruling party to hold discussions with the opposition forces and reach a resolution of the problems in the way of holding a free and fair national election.

13. TDF therefore strongly supports the offer by the UNF to the ruling party for discussion over the election time government and who would head it. TDF believes that failure to resolve these issues would not only dismiss any possibility of a free and fair election; it would be catastrophic for the country.

14. The Prime Minister in her recent statement in New York has stated that it is her intention to hold a free and fair election. TDF sees opportunity at her statement. The ruling party could further the Prime Minister’s intention by opening a dialogue with United the National Front. It would find the UNF less antagonistic than the BNP in discussions and negotiations.

Some additional steps for holding a free and fair election:

If the obstacles of the 15th Amendment and the dissolution of the 10th parliament are resolved through discussions with the opposition forces , the neutral election time government that would emerge as a consequence must take a number of additional steps to ensure that no future government would be able to take away the right of the people of Bangladesh to vote to choose their government. This inalienable right has been given to them by the millions who sacrificed their lives in 1971. The additional steps are the following:

1. The CEC and the majority of the EC members have lost credibility by openly demonstrating their bias for the ruling party. The neutral election time government must find ways in discussion with the stakeholders to ensure that the CEC and the EC are held responsible for holding free and fair election keeping in view that they cannot be changed before the elections for a number of reasons.

2. The other formidable task of the neutral election time government would be to depoliticize the civil servants and the police administration, among whom those in critical positions to influence the election process, no longer need to be told by the ruling party what to do. They literally act as the ruling party activists. To depoliticize these two critical institutions for the sake of holding a free and fair election, the non-party election time government must transfer all District Commissioners and Superintendents of Police from their posts keeping in mind that the leading activists of the ruling party have recently been posted in posts critical to influencing the forthcoming elections.

3. The present CEC, in particular, must be kept on a tight leash. The way he championed the EVM exposed the hand he is playing at such a critical time in the country’s politics. He stopped championing the extremely controversial EVM immediately after the Prime Minister announced these machines would not be used in the forthcoming elections. The non-party, election time government, therefore, must keep the CEC and the EC under serious scrutiny because, by their actions, they have failed to establish their credibility and have exposed their bias, particularly the CEC.

4. The election time the non-party government would need everybody’s assistance to allow the people to vote without hindrances and obstacles, freely and fairly. It may not be entirely possible to depoliticize the civil bureaucracy and the police in the short span of time. The army may, therefore, be deployed for assisting the election time government for assuring, first, that all the political parties have a level playing field, and second, no voter is caused any hindrance in casting his/her vote.

5. The Armed Forces have been made available for international and UN peacekeeping and election duties all over the world and have earned the trust of the nation and the international community with its diligence to duty. If it can be trusted and engaged in international peacekeeping and other duties and often called on domestically during natural disasters, etcetera there appears to be no reason why this trusted and reliable national resource cannot be called to serve the nation in this task of national importance at home.

6. National and international election observers in good number must be present to see that the elections are held freely and fairly.

Conclusion:

Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman had unflinching faith in the people. He also had unflinching faith in free and fair elections so that the people can express their opinions for achieving their social, economic, political emancipation. He believed that if the Pakistanis   allowed him to lead the Awami League to reach the people of erstwhile East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) without obstacles and hindrances with the Six-points programme in a free and fair national election, he would be able to lead them out of their neo-colonial existence to enjoy the fruits of independence and freedom. That the Party he had led to give the people of Bangladesh freedom and independence in 1971 through the power of the vote would through the 2014 national election take it away and again show the intention to do the same in the next national is not only unbelievable but also most unfortunate.

Bangladesh has a million Rohingya refugees on its soil today without any signs they would return. India is threatening to send 4 million more from Assam. Therefore, taking away the right of the people to vote on what appears an attempt to take it away on a permanent basis would create the conditions of violence and conflict that could endanger the existence of Bangladesh because it could become a fertile ground not just for home-grown terrorism but international as well given the fact that international terrorism is in a disarray in the Middle East and looking for new place to re-establish.

Bangladesh is the only country in modern history whose people have sacrificed their lives in millions, to establish a country where they would be able to express their opinions without fear and elect the government of their choice in a free and fair national election. That such a people would remain without their right to vote since January 5, 2014, and now faced with the threat of losing it again through the forthcoming national election is totally unacceptable. It is a disrespect to the martyrs of 1971.